Why Putin Invaded Ukraine. And What Happens Next

The geopolitical ramifications for the world order

Few years ago, I wrote an article on why the 2020’s will be the most dangerous decade. Now we are witnessing incredible geopolitical events — Russia launching a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. While WW3 is not imminent, the invasion is certainly an incredible escalation of power politics at a global scale.

Kiev is certain to fall within a couple of days. Putin is aiming for a regime change and bring Ukraine once again into Russia’s sphere of influence. This is the Russian version of Monroe Doctrine, which claims that all of North America and South America must be pro-USA and free of foreign influence.

The #1 reason for this conflict is the constant expansion of NATO since 1990. Declassified documents of the U.S. National Archives show that the U.S. and European leaders promised in 1990 that NATO would move “not one inch eastward” after the USSR was dismantled. So, what happened?

In 1999 — when Russia was totally pro-US and was run by Yeltsin and other US puppets — NATO added three new countries: Poland, Hungary and Czech Republic. In 2004, NATO added 9 more countries; then two more in 2020.

Ukraine has always been a strategic target for the West and an asset for Russia. Throughout the Cold War, the CIA funded nationalists and neo-Nazi groups in Ukraine — as in Project Aerodynamic. In the 1990s, Brzezinski — mastermind of the Mujahedeen in Afghanistan — said that stealing Ukraine from Russia would mean essentially decapitating Russia. He suggested that Ukraine should be added to NATO by 2010.

Thus, the U.S. (through George Soros and the State Department) instigated a color revolution in 2004 (“Orange Revolution”) to overthrow the election of a pro-Russia President in Ukraine. He came back after a few years and won another election in 2010. Of course, the U.S. orchestrated another coup in 2014 and took over Ukraine.

This time, things got serious. Russia was convinced that the U.S. would establish a naval base in Crimea and that Ukraine will join NATO. Thus, Putin preemptively took over Crimea, and the pro-Russian people in Ukraine started demanding their own autonomous regions. Ukraine has been mired in sort of a civil war since then.

But why the invasion now?

We don’t know the precise reason for the timing. However, Ukraine has been saber-rattling a lot, with talks about joining the NATO or even acquiring nuclear weapons. There have also been rumors of U.S.-built bioweapons labs in Ukraine.

Ukraine is also an emotional issue for Russia. The Russian Empire was founded in Kiev (Kyiv) about 1000 years ago. 40-50% of the people in Ukraine are ethnically Russian. And the history of WW1 and WW2 show that Russia needs a buffer between itself and Europe. Moscow is only 300 miles from Ukraine’s border.

Win For US/NATO

While the U.S. might have “lost” Ukraine, the invasion is a win another way. The invasion will be an excuse to freeze/halt the Nord Stream 2 project, which would have brought huge amounts of natural gas from Russia to Europe. The U.S. strategy is “divide and rule” — don’t let Europe and Russia get too close.

In 2000, Putin asked Bill Clinton if Russia could join NATO, and the answer was silence. Why? NATO justifies its existence by the narrative of “Russian threat.” If there is peace between Russia and Europe, there is no need for NATO. Peace is awful. Thus, this invasion is a gift to NATO, which will now try to add Sweden and Finland to the membership.

As a bonus, more European countries will likely buy more U.S. weapons and missiles.

Win for Russia?

Perhaps, this invasion augurs the birth of the post-American Century. The U.S. is not going to start a war with Russia. There will be sanctions, color revolutions (like the recent ones in Belarus and Kazakhstan), propaganda war, and covert wars. However, the West cannot bring down or evenly seriously hurt Russia.

Biden has even refused to kick Russia out of SWIFT, the international payment system. This is because Russia and China have worked out their own payment systems, which will only gain popularity in the event that Russia gets kicked out of SWIFT.

Putin has been preparing for this moment for a long time. He has built Russia’s foreign exchange reserves to whopping $600 billion. (When Putin came to power in 2000, Russia’s FOREX was paltry $12 billion).

Putin has also kept the Russian government’s foreign debt to a minimum — $64 billion. Russian corporations have about $400 billion of debt denominated in dollar and Euro, but they are not worried since 40% of Europe’s natural gas comes from Russia.

Thus, by standing up against the U.S., Putin is asserting Russia’s new role in a multipolar world.

There is one more country that is closely watching this invasion: China. Xi Jinping is thinking that maybe he could take over Taiwan in a few years, if Russia succeeds with Ukraine.

Dangerous decade indeed…

-Chris Kanthan